Skip to content
Saturday 29 October 2016, 17:15 Estadio de Mendizorroza Full time
1–4
HT 1–2
21% 25% 54%
Home win
20.7%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
54.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Alaves 20.7% 4.84
Draw 25.2% 3.97
Real Madrid 54.2% 1.85

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.6% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.4% 13.46
Over 1.5 75.7% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.3% 4.12
Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98
Under 2.5 49.5% 2.02
Over 3.5 28.5% 3.51
Under 3.5 71.5% 1.40
Over 4.5 13.7% 7.33
Under 4.5 86.3% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.8% 1.93
No 48.2% 2.08

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Alaves / Draw 45.8% 2.18
Alaves / Real Madrid 74.8% 1.34
Draw / Real Madrid 79.3% 1.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.4
10.9
10.0
5.7
2.5
0.8
1
5.9
12.0
9.7
5.6
2.4
0.8
2
3.2
5.5
4.8
2.7
1.2
0.4
3
1.0
1.8
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.1
4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.