Saturday 19 November 2016, 21:45
Vicente Calderón
Full time
38%
25%
36%
Home win
38.5%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
36.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.2% | 3.97 | — | — |
| Real Madrid | 36.3% | 2.75 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.8% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.2% | 19.23 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 18.0% | 5.57 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.0% | 5.00 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| No | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Real Madrid | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Draw / Real Madrid | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.2
|
6.3
|
5.3
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
6.5
|
11.5
|
8.3
|
4.2
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
5.6
|
8.5
|
6.5
|
3.3
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 3 |
2.9
|
4.5
|
3.4
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 4 |
1.2
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Real Madrid
3-2
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
5-2
Real Madrid
Feb 2025
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid
1-1
Real Madrid
Feb 2024
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2023
Atletico Madrid
3-1
Real Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.