Skip to content
Saturday 18 February 2017, 17:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
70% 18% 12%
Home win
70.2%
Draw
18.3%
Away win
11.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 70.2% 1.43
Draw 18.3% 5.47
Espanyol 11.6% 8.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.6% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.4% 22.48
Over 1.5 83.7% 1.19
Under 1.5 16.3% 6.15
Over 2.5 62.6% 1.60
Under 2.5 37.4% 2.67
Over 3.5 40.4% 2.48
Under 3.5 59.6% 1.68
Over 4.5 22.4% 4.45
Under 4.5 77.6% 1.29

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.0% 1.89
No 47.0% 2.13

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 88.4% 1.13
Real Madrid / Espanyol 81.7% 1.22
Draw / Espanyol 29.8% 3.35

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.4
2.9
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
8.9
8.6
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
2
11.0
9.6
4.2
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
8.7
7.5
3.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
5.1
4.5
1.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
5
2.4
2.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.