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Saturday 4 March 2017, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
83% 11% 6%
Home win
82.5%
Draw
11.1%
Away win
6.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 82.5% 1.21
Draw 11.1% 9.04
Celta Vigo 6.4% 15.63

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.3% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.7% 59.59
Over 1.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.2% 13.92
Over 2.5 79.7% 1.25
Under 2.5 20.3% 4.93
Over 3.5 61.5% 1.63
Under 3.5 38.5% 2.60
Over 4.5 42.1% 2.38
Under 4.5 57.9% 1.73

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.4% 1.71
No 41.6% 2.40

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 93.6% 1.07
Barcelona / Celta Vigo 88.9% 1.12
Draw / Celta Vigo 17.5% 5.73

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.7
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
4.5
4.6
2.0
0.6
0.1
0.0
2
7.9
7.3
3.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
8.8
8.1
3.7
1.1
0.3
0.0
4
7.3
6.7
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
5
4.9
4.5
2.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.