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Wednesday 5 April 2017, 20:30 Camp Nou Full time
3–0
HT 3–0
70% 17% 13%
Home win
69.7%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
13.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 69.7% 1.44
Draw 17.1% 5.86
Sevilla 13.2% 7.55

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.2% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.8% 36.14
Over 1.5 89.2% 1.12
Under 1.5 10.8% 9.29
Over 2.5 72.3% 1.38
Under 2.5 27.7% 3.61
Over 3.5 51.6% 1.94
Under 3.5 48.4% 2.07
Over 4.5 32.2% 3.10
Under 4.5 67.8% 1.48

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.6% 1.60
No 37.4% 2.67

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 86.8% 1.15
Barcelona / Sevilla 82.9% 1.21
Draw / Sevilla 30.3% 3.30

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.8
2.2
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
5.8
7.3
3.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
2
8.2
9.1
5.0
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
7.2
8.0
4.4
1.6
0.5
0.1
4
4.8
5.3
2.9
1.1
0.3
0.1
5
2.5
2.8
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.