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Sunday 19 March 2017, 17:15 Vicente Calderón Full time
50% 26% 24%
Home win
50.3%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
23.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 50.3% 1.99
Draw 26.0% 3.85
Sevilla 23.8% 4.21

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.6% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.4% 13.47
Over 1.5 75.8% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.2% 4.14
Over 2.5 50.6% 1.98
Under 2.5 49.4% 2.03
Over 3.5 28.6% 3.50
Under 3.5 71.4% 1.40
Over 4.5 13.7% 7.30
Under 4.5 86.3% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.3% 1.87
No 46.7% 2.14

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 76.2% 1.31
Atletico Madrid / Sevilla 74.0% 1.35
Draw / Sevilla 49.7% 2.01

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.4
6.4
3.8
1.3
0.4
0.1
1
10.3
12.4
6.2
2.2
0.6
0.1
2
9.1
9.6
5.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
5.0
5.2
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
2.0
2.2
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.