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Saturday 18 March 2017, 17:15 San Mamés Full time
25% 26% 49%
Home win
25.3%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
48.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club 25.3% 3.96
Draw 26.0% 3.85
Real Madrid 48.7% 2.05

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.04
Over 1.5 76.7% 1.30
Under 1.5 23.3% 4.28
Over 2.5 51.8% 1.93
Under 2.5 48.2% 2.07
Over 3.5 29.6% 3.38
Under 3.5 70.4% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.4% 6.94
Under 4.5 85.6% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.7% 1.83
No 45.3% 2.21

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club / Draw 51.3% 1.95
Athletic Club / Real Madrid 74.0% 1.35
Draw / Real Madrid 74.7% 1.34

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
9.8
8.6
4.7
1.9
0.6
1
6.4
12.4
9.5
5.2
2.1
0.7
2
4.0
6.5
5.3
2.9
1.2
0.4
3
1.5
2.4
2.0
1.1
0.4
0.1
4
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.