Sunday 26 February 2017, 21:45
Estadio de la Cerámica
Full time
33%
32%
35%
Home win
33.1%
Draw
31.7%
Away win
35.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 33.1% | 3.02 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.7% | 3.16 | — | — |
| Real Madrid | 35.2% | 2.84 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.2% | 7.57 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 15.9% | 6.29 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.1% | 16.43 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 93.9% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
| No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal / Draw | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Villarreal / Real Madrid | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Draw / Real Madrid | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.2
|
12.4
|
7.0
|
2.5
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
11.9
|
14.3
|
7.2
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
6.5
|
6.9
|
3.7
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
2.2
|
2.4
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Villarreal
0-2
Real Madrid
Oct 2025
Real Madrid
3-1
Villarreal
Mar 2025
Villarreal
1-2
Real Madrid
Oct 2024
Real Madrid
2-0
Villarreal
May 2024
Villarreal
4-4
Real Madrid
Dec 2023
Real Madrid
4-1
Villarreal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.