Sunday 5 March 2017, 21:45
San Mamés
Full time
51%
27%
22%
Home win
51.1%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
22.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | — | — |
| Malaga | 22.1% | 4.53 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.9% | 11.30 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.8% | 3.59 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.09 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.0% | 9.08 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
| No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club / Draw | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Athletic Club / Malaga | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw / Malaga | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.9
|
7.0
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
12.0
|
12.7
|
5.7
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.0
|
9.4
|
4.4
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.2
|
4.9
|
2.3
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.0
|
1.9
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2018
Athletic Club
2-1
Malaga
Sep 2017
Malaga
3-3
Athletic Club
Oct 2016
Malaga
2-1
Athletic Club
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.