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Sunday 5 March 2017, 21:45 San Mamés Full time
51% 27% 22%
Home win
51.1%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
22.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club 51.1% 1.96
Draw 26.8% 3.73
Malaga 22.1% 4.53

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.1% 1.10
Under 0.5 8.9% 11.30
Over 1.5 72.2% 1.39
Under 1.5 27.8% 3.59
Over 2.5 45.9% 2.18
Under 2.5 54.1% 1.85
Over 3.5 24.4% 4.09
Under 3.5 75.6% 1.32
Over 4.5 11.0% 9.08
Under 4.5 89.0% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.0% 2.04
No 51.0% 1.96

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club / Draw 77.9% 1.28
Athletic Club / Malaga 73.2% 1.37
Draw / Malaga 48.9% 2.05

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.9
7.0
3.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
1
12.0
12.7
5.7
1.8
0.4
0.1
2
10.0
9.4
4.4
1.4
0.3
0.1
3
5.2
4.9
2.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
2.0
1.9
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.