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Wednesday 1 March 2017, 22:30 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
77% 15% 8%
Home win
77.0%
Draw
14.7%
Away win
8.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 77.0% 1.30
Draw 14.7% 6.79
Las Palmas 8.2% 12.14

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.7% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.3% 30.37
Over 1.5 87.2% 1.15
Under 1.5 12.8% 7.81
Over 2.5 68.6% 1.46
Under 2.5 31.4% 3.19
Over 3.5 47.2% 2.12
Under 3.5 52.8% 1.89
Over 4.5 28.2% 3.55
Under 4.5 71.8% 1.39

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.5% 1.91
No 47.5% 2.10

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 91.8% 1.09
Real Madrid / Las Palmas 85.3% 1.17
Draw / Las Palmas 23.0% 4.36

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.3
2.0
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
7.5
6.8
2.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
10.8
8.8
3.6
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
9.8
8.0
3.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
6.7
5.4
2.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
5
3.6
3.0
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.