Sunday 2 April 2017, 17:15
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
70%
19%
11%
Home win
70.4%
Draw
18.9%
Away win
10.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Draw | 18.9% | 5.29 | — | — |
| Alaves | 10.7% | 9.31 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.5% | 18.23 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 19.4% | 5.16 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 18.5% | 5.41 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
| No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Alaves | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Draw / Alaves | 29.6% | 3.37 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.5
|
3.3
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.6
|
9.0
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.5
|
9.5
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.3
|
7.1
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.2
|
4.0
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.3
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Real Madrid
2-1
Alaves
Dec 2025
Alaves
1-2
Real Madrid
Apr 2025
Alaves
0-1
Real Madrid
Sep 2024
Real Madrid
3-2
Alaves
May 2024
Real Madrid
5-0
Alaves
Dec 2023
Alaves
0-1
Real Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.