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Saturday 15 April 2017, 21:45 Camp Nou Full time
78% 14% 8%
Home win
77.6%
Draw
14.0%
Away win
8.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona 77.6% 1.29
Draw 14.0% 7.16
Real Sociedad 8.5% 11.80

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.4% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.6% 38.94
Over 1.5 89.7% 1.11
Under 1.5 10.3% 9.70
Over 2.5 73.3% 1.37
Under 2.5 26.7% 3.74
Over 3.5 52.8% 1.89
Under 3.5 47.2% 2.12
Over 4.5 33.4% 3.00
Under 4.5 66.6% 1.50

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.8% 1.76
No 43.2% 2.31

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Barcelona / Draw 91.5% 1.09
Barcelona / Real Sociedad 86.0% 1.16
Draw / Real Sociedad 22.4% 4.46

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.6
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
6.1
6.2
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
2
9.3
8.5
3.9
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
9.0
8.2
3.7
1.1
0.3
0.0
4
6.5
5.9
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
3.8
3.4
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.