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Tuesday 4 April 2017, 22:30 Vicente Calderón Full time
64% 22% 14%
Home win
64.4%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
13.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 64.4% 1.55
Draw 21.8% 4.58
Real Sociedad 13.7% 7.28

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.3% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.7% 14.88
Over 1.5 77.3% 1.29
Under 1.5 22.7% 4.41
Over 2.5 52.9% 1.89
Under 2.5 47.1% 2.12
Over 3.5 30.6% 3.27
Under 3.5 69.4% 1.44
Over 4.5 15.1% 6.62
Under 4.5 84.9% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.3% 2.07
No 51.7% 1.93

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 86.3% 1.16
Atletico Madrid / Real Sociedad 78.2% 1.28
Draw / Real Sociedad 35.6% 2.81

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.7
4.3
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
11.6
10.4
3.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
12.1
9.7
3.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
8.0
6.5
2.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
4.0
3.2
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.6
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.