Tuesday 4 April 2017, 22:30
Vicente Calderón
Full time
64%
22%
14%
Home win
64.4%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
13.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Draw | 21.8% | 4.58 | — | — |
| Real Sociedad | 13.7% | 7.28 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.3% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.7% | 14.88 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 15.1% | 6.62 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
| No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Real Sociedad | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Draw / Real Sociedad | 35.6% | 2.81 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.7
|
4.3
|
2.0
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
11.6
|
10.4
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.1
|
9.7
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.0
|
6.5
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
4.0
|
3.2
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.6
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Atletico Madrid
3-2
Real Sociedad
Jan 2026
Real Sociedad
1-1
Atletico Madrid
May 2025
Atletico Madrid
4-0
Real Sociedad
Oct 2024
Real Sociedad
1-1
Atletico Madrid
May 2024
Real Sociedad
0-2
Atletico Madrid
Oct 2023
Atletico Madrid
2-1
Real Sociedad
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.