Skip to content
Saturday 8 April 2017, 17:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
48% 25% 27%
Home win
48.3%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
26.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 48.3% 2.07
Draw 25.2% 3.98
Atletico Madrid 26.5% 3.77

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.0% 1.06
Under 0.5 6.0% 16.62
Over 1.5 79.7% 1.26
Under 1.5 20.3% 4.92
Over 2.5 56.1% 1.78
Under 2.5 43.9% 2.28
Over 3.5 33.7% 2.97
Under 3.5 66.3% 1.51
Over 4.5 17.3% 5.78
Under 4.5 82.7% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.3% 1.71
No 41.7% 2.40

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 73.5% 1.36
Real Madrid / Atletico Madrid 74.8% 1.34
Draw / Atletico Madrid 51.7% 1.94

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.0
5.8
4.0
1.6
0.5
0.1
1
8.5
11.8
6.8
2.7
0.8
0.2
2
7.8
9.5
5.8
2.4
0.7
0.2
3
4.5
5.4
3.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
4
1.9
2.3
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
5
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.