Monday 17 April 2017, 21:45
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Full time
23%
35%
42%
Home win
23.3%
Draw
34.9%
Away win
41.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 23.3% | 4.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 34.9% | 2.86 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 24.1% | 4.14 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 9.2% | 10.82 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 90.8% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 2.9% | 34.16 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 97.1% | 1.03 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32.2% | 3.10 | — | — |
| No | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves / Draw | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Alaves / Villarreal | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
19.1
|
17.9
|
9.4
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
11.7
|
13.4
|
6.4
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
4.3
|
4.3
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Alaves
1-1
Villarreal
Jan 2026
Villarreal
3-1
Alaves
Mar 2025
Alaves
1-0
Villarreal
Nov 2024
Villarreal
3-0
Alaves
Feb 2024
Alaves
1-1
Villarreal
Oct 2023
Villarreal
1-1
Alaves
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.