Tuesday 25 April 2017, 22:30
Vicente Calderón
Full time
50%
31%
19%
Home win
49.7%
Draw
30.9%
Away win
19.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.9% | 3.24 | — | — |
| Villarreal | 19.4% | 5.15 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 14.8% | 6.75 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 31.3% | 3.20 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 13.6% | 7.36 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.9% | 20.35 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.1% | 1.05 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36.6% | 2.74 | — | — |
| No | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid / Draw | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid / Villarreal | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw / Villarreal | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.8
|
9.0
|
3.3
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
17.2
|
13.1
|
4.2
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.4
|
7.8
|
2.7
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
4.8
|
3.3
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.5
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Villarreal
5-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
2-0
Villarreal
Jan 2025
Atletico Madrid
1-1
Villarreal
Aug 2024
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico Madrid
Apr 2024
Villarreal
1-2
Atletico Madrid
Nov 2023
Atletico Madrid
3-1
Villarreal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.