Saturday 29 April 2017, 17:15
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
81%
11%
7%
Home win
81.4%
Draw
11.1%
Away win
7.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.1% | 8.99 | — | — |
| Valencia | 7.5% | 13.36 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.8% | 1.01 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 1.2% | 80.45 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 94.6% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 5.4% | 18.45 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 16.3% | 6.13 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| No | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 92.5% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Valencia | 88.9% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Draw / Valencia | 18.6% | 5.37 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.2
|
0.9
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
3.3
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
6.2
|
6.8
|
3.7
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
7.2
|
7.9
|
4.3
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
6.3
|
6.9
|
3.8
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
4.4
|
4.8
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Valencia
0-2
Real Madrid
Nov 2025
Real Madrid
4-0
Valencia
Apr 2025
Real Madrid
1-2
Valencia
Jan 2025
Valencia
1-2
Real Madrid
Mar 2024
Valencia
2-2
Real Madrid
Nov 2023
Real Madrid
5-1
Valencia
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.