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Sunday 21 May 2017, 17:45 Vicente Calderón Full time
57% 28% 15%
Home win
57.1%
Draw
27.5%
Away win
15.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 57.1% 1.75
Draw 27.5% 3.63
Athletic Club 15.3% 6.52

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.5% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.5% 8.02
Over 1.5 63.7% 1.57
Under 1.5 36.3% 2.75
Over 2.5 36.0% 2.77
Under 2.5 64.0% 1.56
Over 3.5 16.9% 5.93
Under 3.5 83.1% 1.20
Over 4.5 6.6% 15.17
Under 4.5 93.4% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 37.5% 2.67
No 62.5% 1.60

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 84.7% 1.18
Atletico Madrid / Athletic Club 72.5% 1.38
Draw / Athletic Club 42.9% 2.33

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.5
6.9
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
16.9
12.0
3.7
0.8
0.1
0.0
2
13.1
8.5
2.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
6.5
4.2
1.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
2.4
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.