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Saturday 6 May 2017, 17:15 Vicente Calderón Full time
63% 23% 14%
Home win
62.9%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
13.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid 62.9% 1.59
Draw 23.4% 4.27
Eibar 13.7% 7.32

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.5% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.5% 11.79
Over 1.5 72.8% 1.37
Under 1.5 27.2% 3.67
Over 2.5 46.7% 2.14
Under 2.5 53.3% 1.88
Over 3.5 25.2% 3.97
Under 3.5 74.8% 1.34
Over 4.5 11.5% 8.72
Under 4.5 88.5% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 43.8% 2.28
No 56.2% 1.78

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atletico Madrid / Draw 86.3% 1.16
Atletico Madrid / Eibar 76.6% 1.31
Draw / Eibar 37.1% 2.70

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.5
5.1
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
13.7
11.0
3.7
0.9
0.2
0.0
2
13.0
9.4
3.4
0.8
0.1
0.0
3
7.9
5.7
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
3.6
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
1.3
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Eibar goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.