Sunday 27 August 2017, 23:15
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
81%
12%
7%
Home win
80.8%
Draw
11.8%
Away win
7.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Draw | 11.8% | 8.45 | — | — |
| Valencia | 7.3% | 13.61 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98.3% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 1.7% | 58.79 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 92.8% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 7.2% | 13.86 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 20.4% | 4.91 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| No | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Valencia | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Draw / Valencia | 19.2% | 5.21 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
1.7
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
4.4
|
4.9
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
7.6
|
7.5
|
3.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
8.3
|
8.2
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
6.8
|
6.7
|
3.3
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
4.4
|
4.4
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Valencia
0-2
Real Madrid
Nov 2025
Real Madrid
4-0
Valencia
Apr 2025
Real Madrid
1-2
Valencia
Jan 2025
Valencia
1-2
Real Madrid
Mar 2024
Valencia
2-2
Real Madrid
Nov 2023
Real Madrid
5-1
Valencia
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.