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Sunday 27 August 2017, 23:15 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
81% 12% 7%
Home win
80.8%
Draw
11.8%
Away win
7.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 80.8% 1.24
Draw 11.8% 8.45
Valencia 7.3% 13.61

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.3% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.7% 58.79
Over 1.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.2% 13.86
Over 2.5 79.6% 1.26
Under 2.5 20.4% 4.91
Over 3.5 61.4% 1.63
Under 3.5 38.6% 2.59
Over 4.5 42.0% 2.38
Under 4.5 58.0% 1.72

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.4% 1.65
No 39.6% 2.53

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 92.7% 1.08
Real Madrid / Valencia 88.2% 1.13
Draw / Valencia 19.2% 5.21

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.7
1.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
4.4
4.9
2.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
2
7.6
7.5
3.7
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
8.3
8.2
4.0
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
6.8
6.7
3.3
1.1
0.3
0.1
5
4.4
4.4
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.