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Saturday 4 March 2017, 21:45 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
3–1
HT 1–1
52% 28% 19%
Home win
52.5%
Draw
28.2%
Away win
19.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 52.5% 1.91
Draw 28.2% 3.55
Chievo 19.4% 5.17

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.6% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.4% 8.79
Over 1.5 66.2% 1.51
Under 1.5 33.8% 2.96
Over 2.5 38.8% 2.58
Under 2.5 61.2% 1.63
Over 3.5 18.9% 5.31
Under 3.5 81.2% 1.23
Over 4.5 7.7% 13.01
Under 4.5 92.3% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 42.3% 2.36
No 57.7% 1.73

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 80.6% 1.24
AC Milan / Chievo 71.8% 1.39
Draw / Chievo 47.5% 2.10

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.4
7.6
3.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
14.8
12.9
4.7
1.2
0.2
0.0
2
11.3
8.8
3.5
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
5.5
4.3
1.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
2.0
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Chievo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.