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Sunday 5 February 2017, 13:30 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
0–1
HT 0–0
54% 27% 19%
Home win
54.1%
Draw
26.7%
Away win
19.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 54.1% 1.85
Draw 26.7% 3.74
Sampdoria 19.1% 5.23

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.2% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.8% 10.26
Over 1.5 69.9% 1.43
Under 1.5 30.1% 3.33
Over 2.5 43.1% 2.32
Under 2.5 56.9% 1.76
Over 3.5 22.2% 4.50
Under 3.5 77.8% 1.29
Over 4.5 9.6% 10.39
Under 4.5 90.4% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.5% 2.20
No 54.6% 1.83

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 80.9% 1.24
AC Milan / Sampdoria 73.3% 1.37
Draw / Sampdoria 45.9% 2.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.8
6.8
3.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
1
13.5
12.5
4.9
1.4
0.3
0.0
2
11.2
9.3
3.9
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
5.9
4.9
2.0
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
2.3
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.