Skip to content
Saturday 21 January 2017, 21:45 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
1–2
HT 1–2
38% 26% 36%
Home win
38.0%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
36.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 38.0% 2.63
Draw 25.6% 3.90
Napoli 36.4% 2.75

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.4% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.6% 17.74
Over 1.5 80.8% 1.24
Under 1.5 19.2% 5.21
Over 2.5 57.7% 1.73
Under 2.5 42.3% 2.37
Over 3.5 35.3% 2.83
Under 3.5 64.7% 1.55
Over 4.5 18.5% 5.40
Under 4.5 81.5% 1.23

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 61.1% 1.64
No 38.9% 2.57

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 63.6% 1.57
AC Milan / Napoli 74.4% 1.34
Draw / Napoli 62.0% 1.61

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.6
6.7
5.5
2.7
1.0
0.3
1
6.9
11.9
8.3
4.1
1.5
0.5
2
5.7
8.5
6.3
3.1
1.2
0.3
3
2.9
4.3
3.2
1.6
0.6
0.2
4
1.1
1.6
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
5
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.