Saturday 21 January 2017, 21:45
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Full time
38%
26%
36%
Home win
38.0%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
36.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.6% | 3.90 | — | — |
| Napoli | 36.4% | 2.75 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.4% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.6% | 17.74 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 19.2% | 5.21 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 18.5% | 5.40 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| No | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan / Draw | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| AC Milan / Napoli | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Draw / Napoli | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.6
|
6.7
|
5.5
|
2.7
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
6.9
|
11.9
|
8.3
|
4.1
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
5.7
|
8.5
|
6.3
|
3.1
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
2.9
|
4.3
|
3.2
|
1.6
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 4 |
1.1
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.3
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Napoli
1-0
AC Milan
Sep 2025
AC Milan
2-1
Napoli
Mar 2025
Napoli
2-1
AC Milan
Oct 2024
AC Milan
0-2
Napoli
Feb 2024
AC Milan
1-0
Napoli
Oct 2023
Napoli
2-2
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.