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Sunday 8 January 2017, 19:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
1–0
HT 0–0
72% 16% 12%
Home win
71.6%
Draw
16.0%
Away win
12.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 71.6% 1.40
Draw 16.0% 6.26
Cagliari 12.5% 8.02

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.7% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.3% 43.69
Over 1.5 90.9% 1.10
Under 1.5 9.1% 10.95
Over 2.5 75.5% 1.32
Under 2.5 24.5% 4.08
Over 3.5 55.7% 1.79
Under 3.5 44.3% 2.26
Over 4.5 36.2% 2.76
Under 4.5 63.8% 1.57

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 64.4% 1.55
No 35.6% 2.81

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 87.5% 1.14
AC Milan / Cagliari 84.0% 1.19
Draw / Cagliari 28.4% 3.52

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.3
1.8
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
5.0
6.5
3.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
2
7.6
8.7
5.0
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
7.1
8.1
4.6
1.8
0.5
0.1
4
5.0
5.7
3.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
5
2.8
3.2
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.