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Saturday 17 December 2016, 16:00 Carlo Castellani Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
31% 29% 40%
Home win
31.3%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
40.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli 31.3% 3.19
Draw 28.6% 3.49
Cagliari 40.1% 2.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.7% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.3% 10.79
Over 1.5 71.3% 1.40
Under 1.5 28.7% 3.49
Over 2.5 44.7% 2.24
Under 2.5 55.3% 1.81
Over 3.5 23.5% 4.25
Under 3.5 76.5% 1.31
Over 4.5 10.4% 9.59
Under 4.5 89.6% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.7% 1.97
No 49.3% 2.03

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli / Draw 59.9% 1.67
Empoli / Cagliari 71.4% 1.40
Draw / Cagliari 68.7% 1.46

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.3
10.5
7.4
3.3
1.1
0.3
1
8.9
13.6
8.5
3.8
1.2
0.3
2
5.5
7.3
4.9
2.1
0.7
0.2
3
2.1
2.8
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
4
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.