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Sunday 20 November 2016, 16:00 Carlo Castellani Full time
0–4
HT 0–1
25% 38% 37%
Home win
25.3%
Draw
37.9%
Away win
36.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli 25.3% 3.95
Draw 37.9% 2.64
Fiorentina 36.8% 2.72

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 77.0% 1.30
Under 0.5 23.0% 4.35
Over 1.5 45.1% 2.22
Under 1.5 54.9% 1.82
Over 2.5 19.2% 5.21
Under 2.5 80.8% 1.24
Over 3.5 6.6% 15.13
Under 3.5 93.4% 1.07
Over 4.5 1.9% 53.33
Under 4.5 98.1% 1.02

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 28.2% 3.54
No 71.8% 1.39

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli / Draw 63.2% 1.58
Empoli / Fiorentina 62.1% 1.61
Draw / Fiorentina 74.7% 1.34

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
23.0
18.2
8.0
2.3
0.5
0.1
1
13.8
13.1
5.3
1.5
0.3
0.1
2
4.7
4.0
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
1.0
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.