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Saturday 26 November 2016, 21:45 Carlo Castellani Full time
1–4
HT 1–1
23% 31% 46%
Home win
23.0%
Draw
31.0%
Away win
46.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli 23.0% 4.36
Draw 31.0% 3.23
AC Milan 46.1% 2.17

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.3% 1.16
Under 0.5 13.7% 7.28
Over 1.5 61.3% 1.63
Under 1.5 38.7% 2.58
Over 2.5 33.5% 2.99
Under 2.5 66.5% 1.50
Over 3.5 15.1% 6.64
Under 3.5 84.9% 1.18
Over 4.5 5.7% 17.68
Under 4.5 94.3% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.9% 2.51
No 60.1% 1.66

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli / Draw 53.9% 1.86
Empoli / AC Milan 69.0% 1.45
Draw / AC Milan 77.0% 1.30

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.7
15.4
10.1
4.2
1.3
0.3
1
9.6
13.6
8.0
3.3
1.0
0.3
2
4.1
5.1
3.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
3
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.