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Tuesday 25 October 2016, 21:45 Luigi Ferraris Full time
3–0
HT 1–0
28% 29% 42%
Home win
28.3%
Draw
29.3%
Away win
42.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 28.3% 3.53
Draw 29.3% 3.41
AC Milan 42.3% 2.36

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.5% 1.12
Under 0.5 10.5% 9.51
Over 1.5 68.4% 1.46
Under 1.5 31.6% 3.16
Over 2.5 41.2% 2.43
Under 2.5 58.8% 1.70
Over 3.5 20.7% 4.84
Under 3.5 79.3% 1.26
Over 4.5 8.7% 11.46
Under 4.5 91.3% 1.10

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.5% 2.11
No 52.5% 1.90

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 57.7% 1.73
Genoa / AC Milan 70.7% 1.42
Draw / AC Milan 71.7% 1.40

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.5
11.9
8.3
3.6
1.2
0.3
1
9.2
13.8
8.5
3.7
1.2
0.3
2
5.1
6.6
4.3
1.9
0.6
0.2
3
1.7
2.3
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.1
4
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.