Tuesday 25 October 2016, 21:45
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
28%
29%
42%
Home win
28.3%
Draw
29.3%
Away win
42.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 28.3% | 3.53 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.3% | 3.41 | — | — |
| AC Milan | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.5% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.5% | 9.51 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 31.6% | 3.16 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.7% | 11.46 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
| No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Genoa / AC Milan | 70.7% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Draw / AC Milan | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.5
|
11.9
|
8.3
|
3.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
9.2
|
13.8
|
8.5
|
3.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
| 2 |
5.1
|
6.6
|
4.3
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.7
|
2.3
|
1.5
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Genoa
1-2
AC Milan
Jan 2026
AC Milan
1-1
Genoa
May 2025
Genoa
1-2
AC Milan
Dec 2024
AC Milan
0-0
Genoa
May 2024
AC Milan
3-3
Genoa
Oct 2023
Genoa
0-1
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.