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Sunday 2 October 2016, 19:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
4–3
HT 1–1
56% 26% 18%
Home win
55.8%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
18.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 55.8% 1.79
Draw 25.7% 3.89
Sassuolo 18.5% 5.41

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.2% 1.10
Under 0.5 8.8% 11.42
Over 1.5 72.3% 1.38
Under 1.5 27.7% 3.61
Over 2.5 46.1% 2.17
Under 2.5 53.9% 1.85
Over 3.5 24.6% 4.06
Under 3.5 75.4% 1.33
Over 4.5 11.1% 9.00
Under 4.5 88.9% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 47.2% 2.12
No 52.8% 1.90

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 81.5% 1.23
AC Milan / Sassuolo 74.3% 1.35
Draw / Sassuolo 44.2% 2.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.8
6.2
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
12.7
12.2
4.9
1.4
0.3
0.1
2
11.2
9.5
4.1
1.2
0.2
0.0
3
6.2
5.3
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
2.6
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.