Skip to content
Saturday 27 August 2016, 21:45 Stadio San Paolo Full time
4–2
HT 2–0
36% 53% 11%
Home win
36.1%
Draw
53.0%
Away win
10.9%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 36.1% 2.77
Draw 53.0% 1.89
AC Milan 10.9% 9.19

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 52.8% 1.89
Under 0.5 47.2% 2.12
Over 1.5 17.9% 5.58
Under 1.5 82.1% 1.22
Over 2.5 4.1% 24.11
Under 2.5 95.9% 1.04
Over 3.5 0.8% 132.63
Under 3.5 99.2% 1.01
Over 4.5 0.1% 900.90
Under 4.5 99.9% 1.00

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 8.2% 12.26
No 91.8% 1.09

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 89.1% 1.12
Napoli / AC Milan 47.0% 2.13
Draw / AC Milan 63.9% 1.57

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
47.2
9.2
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
25.6
5.6
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
7.2
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.