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Tuesday 20 September 2016, 21:45 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
2–0
HT 1–0
3% 18% 79%
Home win
3.0%
Draw
18.4%
Away win
78.7%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 3.0% 33.82
Draw 18.4% 5.45
Lazio 78.7% 1.27

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.0% 1.15
Under 0.5 13.0% 7.67
Over 1.5 61.3% 1.63
Under 1.5 38.7% 2.58
Over 2.5 33.9% 2.95
Under 2.5 66.1% 1.51
Over 3.5 15.4% 6.51
Under 3.5 84.6% 1.18
Over 4.5 5.8% 17.20
Under 4.5 94.2% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 15.2% 6.59
No 84.8% 1.18

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 21.3% 4.69
AC Milan / Lazio 81.6% 1.22
Draw / Lazio 97.0% 1.03

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.0
23.5
22.2
13.8
6.4
2.4
1
2.2
4.9
4.3
2.7
1.2
0.5
2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.