Friday 16 September 2016, 21:45
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
49%
21%
29%
Home win
49.4%
Draw
21.3%
Away win
29.3%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
| Draw | 21.3% | 4.69 | — | — |
| AC Milan | 29.3% | 3.42 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97.5% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 2.5% | 39.64 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 9.6% | 10.40 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | 3.90 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 34.8% | 2.88 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| No | 27.2% | 3.68 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria / Draw | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Sampdoria / AC Milan | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Draw / AC Milan | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
2.5
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
1.6
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
4.1
|
8.1
|
6.4
|
3.6
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
5.0
|
8.4
|
7.1
|
4.0
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
| 3 |
3.7
|
6.2
|
5.2
|
2.9
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 4 |
2.0
|
3.4
|
2.8
|
1.6
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 5 |
0.9
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
Form
Head to head
May 2023
AC Milan
5-1
Sampdoria
Sep 2022
Sampdoria
1-2
AC Milan
Feb 2022
AC Milan
1-0
Sampdoria
Aug 2021
Sampdoria
0-1
AC Milan
Apr 2021
AC Milan
1-1
Sampdoria
Dec 2020
Sampdoria
1-2
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.