Wednesday 21 September 2016, 21:45
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
41%
22%
37%
Home win
40.6%
Draw
21.9%
Away win
37.5%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
| Draw | 21.9% | 4.56 | — | — |
| Napoli | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97.5% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 2.5% | 39.92 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 90.5% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 9.5% | 10.50 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | 3.93 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| No | 26.1% | 3.83 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Genoa / Napoli | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Draw / Napoli | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
2.5
|
3.4
|
3.7
|
2.4
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
3.6
|
8.2
|
7.4
|
4.7
|
2.2
|
0.8
|
| 2 |
4.0
|
7.7
|
7.3
|
4.6
|
2.2
|
0.8
|
| 3 |
2.7
|
5.1
|
4.8
|
3.1
|
1.5
|
0.6
|
| 4 |
1.3
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
1.5
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
| 5 |
0.5
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Genoa
2-3
Napoli
Oct 2025
Napoli
2-1
Genoa
May 2025
Napoli
2-2
Genoa
Dec 2024
Genoa
1-2
Napoli
Feb 2024
Napoli
1-1
Genoa
Sep 2023
Genoa
2-2
Napoli
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.