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Saturday 17 September 2016, 21:45 Stadio San Paolo Full time
3–1
HT 1–0
76% 20% 4%
Home win
76.1%
Draw
20.3%
Away win
3.7%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 76.1% 1.31
Draw 20.3% 4.93
Bologna 3.7% 27.34

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 85.8% 1.17
Under 0.5 14.2% 7.05
Over 1.5 59.0% 1.69
Under 1.5 41.0% 2.44
Over 2.5 31.7% 3.16
Under 2.5 68.3% 1.46
Over 3.5 13.8% 7.22
Under 3.5 86.2% 1.16
Over 4.5 5.0% 19.83
Under 4.5 95.0% 1.05

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 16.3% 6.12
No 83.7% 1.20

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 96.3% 1.04
Napoli / Bologna 79.7% 1.25
Draw / Bologna 23.9% 4.18

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.2
2.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
24.1
5.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
21.5
4.6
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
12.6
2.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
5.5
1.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
2.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Bologna goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.