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Sunday 4 December 2016, 13:30 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
2–1
HT 1–1
75% 16% 9%
Home win
75.3%
Draw
15.9%
Away win
8.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 75.3% 1.33
Draw 15.9% 6.29
Crotone 8.8% 11.30

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.1% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.9% 25.65
Over 1.5 85.3% 1.17
Under 1.5 14.7% 6.79
Over 2.5 65.2% 1.53
Under 2.5 34.8% 2.88
Over 3.5 43.3% 2.31
Under 3.5 56.7% 1.76
Over 4.5 24.8% 4.03
Under 4.5 75.2% 1.33

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.9% 1.96
No 49.1% 2.04

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 91.2% 1.10
AC Milan / Crotone 84.1% 1.19
Draw / Crotone 24.7% 4.04

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.9
2.3
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
8.5
7.5
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
11.5
9.1
3.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
9.8
7.8
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
6.3
5.0
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
3.2
2.6
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Crotone goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.