Sunday 19 February 2017, 21:45
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Full time
44%
26%
30%
Home win
43.6%
Draw
26.1%
Away win
30.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.1% | 3.84 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 30.3% | 3.30 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.6% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.4% | 15.58 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 4.67 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 16.2% | 6.18 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| No | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan / Draw | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| AC Milan / Fiorentina | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.4
|
6.6
|
4.7
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
8.3
|
12.3
|
7.4
|
3.2
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 2 |
7.1
|
9.1
|
5.9
|
2.5
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
3.8
|
4.8
|
3.1
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.5
|
1.9
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Fiorentina
1-1
AC Milan
Oct 2025
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Apr 2025
AC Milan
2-2
Fiorentina
Oct 2024
Fiorentina
2-1
AC Milan
Mar 2024
Fiorentina
1-2
AC Milan
Nov 2023
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.