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Tuesday 7 February 2017, 21:45 Stadio Olimpico Full time
4–0
HT 1–0
58% 22% 20%
Home win
57.5%
Draw
22.4%
Away win
20.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AS Roma 57.5% 1.74
Draw 22.4% 4.46
Fiorentina 20.1% 4.99

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.56
Over 1.5 82.8% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.2% 5.82
Over 2.5 61.0% 1.64
Under 2.5 39.0% 2.56
Over 3.5 38.7% 2.59
Under 3.5 61.3% 1.63
Over 4.5 21.1% 4.74
Under 4.5 78.9% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.3% 1.69
No 40.7% 2.45

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AS Roma / Draw 79.9% 1.25
AS Roma / Fiorentina 77.6% 1.29
Draw / Fiorentina 42.5% 2.35

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
4.2
2.7
1.0
0.3
0.1
1
8.1
10.3
5.5
2.1
0.6
0.1
2
8.8
9.9
5.6
2.1
0.6
0.1
3
5.9
6.7
3.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
3.0
3.4
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
5
1.2
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: AS Roma goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.