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Sunday 29 January 2017, 16:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
3–3
HT 1–0
61% 22% 16%
Home win
61.5%
Draw
22.4%
Away win
16.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 61.5% 1.63
Draw 22.4% 4.46
Genoa 16.1% 6.22

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.7% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.3% 15.97
Over 1.5 78.7% 1.27
Under 1.5 21.3% 4.69
Over 2.5 54.8% 1.83
Under 2.5 45.2% 2.21
Over 3.5 32.4% 3.09
Under 3.5 67.6% 1.48
Over 4.5 16.4% 6.11
Under 4.5 83.6% 1.20

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.9% 1.93
No 48.1% 2.08

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 83.9% 1.19
Fiorentina / Genoa 77.6% 1.29
Draw / Genoa 38.5% 2.60

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.3
4.5
2.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
10.5
10.7
4.6
1.4
0.3
0.1
2
10.9
9.9
4.5
1.4
0.3
0.1
3
7.2
6.5
2.9
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
3.5
3.2
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.4
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.