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Sunday 15 January 2017, 13:30 Sant'Elia Full time
4–1
HT 2–1
37% 25% 38%
Home win
36.5%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
38.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari 36.5% 2.74
Draw 25.2% 3.97
Genoa 38.3% 2.61

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.8% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.2% 19.26
Over 1.5 82.1% 1.22
Under 1.5 17.9% 5.58
Over 2.5 59.7% 1.67
Under 2.5 40.3% 2.48
Over 3.5 37.3% 2.68
Under 3.5 62.7% 1.60
Over 4.5 20.0% 4.99
Under 4.5 80.0% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 62.6% 1.60
No 37.4% 2.67

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari / Draw 61.7% 1.62
Cagliari / Genoa 74.8% 1.34
Draw / Genoa 63.5% 1.58

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.2
6.5
5.6
2.9
1.1
0.4
1
6.3
11.5
8.5
4.4
1.7
0.5
2
5.3
8.3
6.5
3.4
1.3
0.4
3
2.7
4.2
3.3
1.7
0.7
0.2
4
1.0
1.6
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
5
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.