Thursday 15 December 2016, 21:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
38%
29%
32%
Home win
38.4%
Draw
29.4%
Away win
32.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 38.4% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.4% | 3.40 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 32.2% | 3.11 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.8% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.2% | 9.79 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 30.9% | 3.23 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 21.3% | 4.69 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.1% | 10.98 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
| No | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Genoa / Fiorentina | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.2
|
9.8
|
5.9
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
10.9
|
13.9
|
7.3
|
2.7
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.3
|
8.2
|
4.6
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.0
|
3.4
|
1.9
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Fiorentina
0-0
Genoa
Nov 2025
Genoa
2-2
Fiorentina
Feb 2025
Fiorentina
2-1
Genoa
Oct 2024
Genoa
0-1
Fiorentina
Apr 2024
Fiorentina
1-1
Genoa
Aug 2023
Genoa
1-4
Fiorentina
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.