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Thursday 15 December 2016, 21:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
38% 29% 32%
Home win
38.4%
Draw
29.4%
Away win
32.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 38.4% 2.61
Draw 29.4% 3.40
Fiorentina 32.2% 3.11

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 89.8% 1.11
Under 0.5 10.2% 9.79
Over 1.5 69.1% 1.45
Under 1.5 30.9% 3.23
Over 2.5 42.0% 2.38
Under 2.5 58.0% 1.72
Over 3.5 21.3% 4.69
Under 3.5 78.7% 1.27
Over 4.5 9.1% 10.98
Under 4.5 90.9% 1.10

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.7% 2.05
No 51.3% 1.95

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 67.8% 1.48
Genoa / Fiorentina 70.6% 1.42
Draw / Fiorentina 61.6% 1.62

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.2
9.8
5.9
2.2
0.6
0.1
1
10.9
13.9
7.3
2.7
0.8
0.2
2
7.3
8.2
4.6
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
3.0
3.4
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
0.9
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.