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Monday 12 December 2016, 20:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
60% 22% 18%
Home win
60.2%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
18.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 60.2% 1.66
Draw 21.6% 4.62
Sassuolo 18.2% 5.51

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.3% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.7% 21.13
Over 1.5 83.2% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.8% 5.94
Over 2.5 61.5% 1.62
Under 2.5 38.5% 2.60
Over 3.5 39.3% 2.55
Under 3.5 60.7% 1.65
Over 4.5 21.5% 4.64
Under 4.5 78.5% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.5% 1.71
No 41.5% 2.41

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 81.8% 1.22
Fiorentina / Sassuolo 78.4% 1.28
Draw / Sassuolo 39.8% 2.51

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.7
3.9
2.4
0.9
0.2
0.1
1
8.2
10.0
5.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
2
9.2
9.9
5.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
6.4
6.9
3.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
4
3.4
3.6
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
5
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.