Skip to content
Sunday 20 November 2016, 16:00 Stadio Olimpico Full time
3–1
HT 1–0
60% 25% 16%
Home win
59.6%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
15.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 59.6% 1.68
Draw 24.5% 4.07
Genoa 15.9% 6.30

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.4% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.6% 11.61
Over 1.5 72.6% 1.38
Under 1.5 27.4% 3.64
Over 2.5 46.4% 2.15
Under 2.5 53.6% 1.87
Over 3.5 24.9% 4.02
Under 3.5 75.1% 1.33
Over 4.5 11.3% 8.85
Under 4.5 88.7% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.6% 2.19
No 54.4% 1.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 84.1% 1.19
Lazio / Genoa 75.5% 1.33
Draw / Genoa 40.4% 2.47

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.6
5.6
2.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
13.2
11.6
4.3
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
12.1
9.5
3.7
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
7.1
5.5
2.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
3.1
2.4
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.