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Wednesday 26 October 2016, 21:45 Stadio Olimpico Full time
4–1
HT 3–0
72% 15% 13%
Home win
71.9%
Draw
15.3%
Away win
12.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 71.9% 1.39
Draw 15.3% 6.54
Cagliari 12.8% 7.79

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.2% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.8% 56.59
Over 1.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.2% 13.83
Over 2.5 79.5% 1.26
Under 2.5 20.5% 4.87
Over 3.5 61.2% 1.63
Under 3.5 38.8% 2.58
Over 4.5 41.8% 2.39
Under 4.5 58.2% 1.72

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 68.3% 1.46
No 31.7% 3.16

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 87.2% 1.15
Lazio / Cagliari 84.7% 1.18
Draw / Cagliari 28.1% 3.56

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.8
1.5
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
1
4.0
5.7
3.4
1.4
0.5
0.1
2
6.4
8.1
5.1
2.1
0.7
0.2
3
6.4
8.0
5.0
2.1
0.7
0.2
4
4.7
6.0
3.8
1.6
0.5
0.1
5
2.8
3.6
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.