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Monday 26 September 2016, 22:00 Sant'Elia Full time
2–1
HT 1–0
63% 17% 19%
Home win
63.5%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
19.4%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari 63.5% 1.58
Draw 17.1% 5.83
Sampdoria 19.4% 5.16

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.6% 1.01
Under 0.5 1.4% 71.48
Over 1.5 94.3% 1.06
Under 1.5 5.7% 17.51
Over 2.5 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 17.2% 5.83
Over 3.5 66.1% 1.51
Under 3.5 33.9% 2.95
Over 4.5 47.1% 2.12
Under 4.5 52.9% 1.89

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 76.2% 1.31
No 23.8% 4.20

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari / Draw 80.6% 1.24
Cagliari / Sampdoria 82.9% 1.21
Draw / Sampdoria 36.5% 2.74

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.4
1.5
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
1
2.8
5.4
4.2
2.3
0.9
0.3
2
4.6
7.4
6.0
3.3
1.3
0.4
3
4.4
7.2
5.8
3.2
1.3
0.4
4
3.2
5.2
4.2
2.3
0.9
0.3
5
1.8
3.0
2.4
1.3
0.5
0.2
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.