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Sunday 2 October 2016, 16:00 Sant'Elia Full time
2–1
HT 1–0
80% 12% 8%
Home win
80.4%
Draw
12.1%
Away win
7.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari 80.4% 1.24
Draw 12.1% 8.26
Crotone 7.5% 13.30

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.2% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.8% 55.96
Over 1.5 92.5% 1.08
Under 1.5 7.5% 13.28
Over 2.5 78.9% 1.27
Under 2.5 21.1% 4.75
Over 3.5 60.4% 1.66
Under 3.5 39.6% 2.53
Over 4.5 41.0% 2.44
Under 4.5 59.0% 1.69

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.1% 1.66
No 39.9% 2.51

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari / Draw 92.5% 1.08
Cagliari / Crotone 87.9% 1.14
Draw / Crotone 19.6% 5.09

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.8
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
1
4.6
5.0
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.0
2
7.8
7.6
3.7
1.2
0.3
0.1
3
8.4
8.2
4.0
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
6.7
6.6
3.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
5
4.3
4.2
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Crotone goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.