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Wednesday 21 September 2016, 21:45 Stadio Olimpico Full time
4–0
HT 2–0
90% 6% 3%
Home win
90.4%
Draw
6.4%
Away win
3.1%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AS Roma 90.4% 1.11
Draw 6.4% 15.54
Crotone 3.1% 32.09

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 99.2% 1.01
Under 0.5 0.8% 124.38
Over 1.5 96.2% 1.04
Under 1.5 3.8% 25.97
Over 2.5 87.7% 1.14
Under 2.5 12.3% 8.10
Over 3.5 73.7% 1.36
Under 3.5 26.3% 3.80
Over 4.5 56.1% 1.78
Under 4.5 43.9% 2.28

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.6% 1.77
No 43.4% 2.31

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AS Roma / Draw 96.9% 1.03
AS Roma / Crotone 93.6% 1.07
Draw / Crotone 9.6% 10.47

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
2.6
2.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
2
5.8
4.9
2.1
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
8.0
6.8
2.9
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
8.3
7.1
3.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
5
6.9
5.9
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
Rows: AS Roma goals. Columns: Crotone goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.