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Monday 12 September 2016, 21:45 Carlo Castellani Full time
2–1
HT 1–1
7% 8% 85%
Home win
7.4%
Draw
7.7%
Away win
84.9%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli 7.4% 13.56
Draw 7.7% 12.94
Crotone 84.9% 1.18

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 99.9% 1.00
Under 0.5 0.1% 684.93
Over 1.5 99.3% 1.01
Under 1.5 0.7% 145.99
Over 2.5 97.0% 1.03
Under 2.5 3.0% 33.30
Over 3.5 91.7% 1.09
Under 3.5 8.3% 12.07
Over 4.5 82.5% 1.21
Under 4.5 17.5% 5.70

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 84.5% 1.18
No 15.5% 6.46

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Empoli / Draw 15.1% 6.62
Empoli / Crotone 92.3% 1.08
Draw / Crotone 92.6% 1.08

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
0.1
0.4
1.2
2.0
2.6
2.7
1
0.1
0.9
2.3
3.9
5.0
5.1
2
0.2
0.8
2.2
3.7
4.7
4.8
3
0.1
0.5
1.4
2.3
3.0
3.0
4
0.1
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.4
1.4
5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
Rows: Empoli goals. Columns: Crotone goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.