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Sunday 18 December 2016, 21:45 Stadio Olimpico Full time
3–1
HT 2–0
53% 25% 22%
Home win
52.8%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
22.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 52.8% 1.89
Draw 25.2% 3.97
Fiorentina 22.0% 4.54

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.0% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.0% 14.22
Over 1.5 76.8% 1.30
Under 1.5 23.2% 4.31
Over 2.5 52.0% 1.92
Under 2.5 48.0% 2.08
Over 3.5 29.8% 3.35
Under 3.5 70.2% 1.43
Over 4.5 14.6% 6.87
Under 4.5 85.4% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.6% 1.87
No 46.4% 2.16

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 78.0% 1.28
Lazio / Fiorentina 74.8% 1.34
Draw / Fiorentina 47.2% 2.12

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.0
5.9
3.4
1.2
0.3
0.1
1
10.3
12.0
5.9
2.0
0.5
0.1
2
9.4
9.7
5.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
5.4
5.6
2.9
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
2.3
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.