Sunday 19 November 2017, 16:00
Stadio Paolo Mazza
Full time
28%
26%
46%
Home win
27.6%
Draw
26.4%
Away win
46.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal | 27.6% | 3.63 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.4% | 3.78 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.8% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.2% | 13.94 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 29.4% | 3.40 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.3% | 7.00 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| No | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal / Draw | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Spal / Fiorentina | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.2
|
9.5
|
8.0
|
4.2
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
| 1 |
6.8
|
12.6
|
9.3
|
4.9
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
| 2 |
4.4
|
6.9
|
5.4
|
2.8
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
| 3 |
1.7
|
2.7
|
2.1
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.5
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Aug 2020
Spal
1-3
Fiorentina
Jan 2020
Fiorentina
1-0
Spal
Feb 2019
Spal
1-4
Fiorentina
Sep 2018
Fiorentina
3-0
Spal
Apr 2018
Fiorentina
0-0
Spal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.