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Sunday 15 April 2018, 13:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
0–0
HT 0–0
60% 23% 16%
Home win
60.4%
Draw
23.3%
Away win
16.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 60.4% 1.66
Draw 23.3% 4.29
Spal 16.3% 6.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.16
Over 1.5 76.5% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.5% 4.26
Over 2.5 51.7% 1.93
Under 2.5 48.3% 2.07
Over 3.5 29.6% 3.38
Under 3.5 70.4% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.4% 6.96
Under 4.5 85.6% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.8% 2.01
No 50.2% 1.99

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 83.7% 1.19
Fiorentina / Spal 76.7% 1.30
Draw / Spal 39.6% 2.52

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
5.0
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
11.4
11.1
4.6
1.3
0.3
0.1
2
11.3
9.8
4.3
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
7.1
6.1
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
3.3
2.9
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.2
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Spal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.